Deportivo Camioneros 1–0 Juventud de Bernal

Deportivo Camioneros

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Juventud de Bernal

8/2/2024

Torneo Promocional Amateur · Clausura - 3Estadio Hugo Moyano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Deportivo Camioneros66%

×Draw20%

Juventud de Bernal14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CamionerosExpected goals in this matchJuventud de Bernal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

0.83

Deportivo Camioneros

2.06

Juventud de Bernal

0.83

Deportivo Camioneros creates 148% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 22 away

2.36

creates per match

0.95

0.71

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Deportivo Camioneros

2.36

Juventud de Bernal

0.95

allows per match

Deportivo Camioneros

0.71

Juventud de Bernal

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Camioneros+0.00on par

Juventud de Bernal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Camioneros ↓

Juventud de Bernal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Deportivo Camioneros or draw

86%

Deportivo Camioneros or Juventud de Bernal

80%

Draw or Juventud de Bernal

34%

Winning margin

Deportivo Camioneros wins by 2+

41%

Juventud de Bernal wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Deportivo Camioneros 1+ goals

87%

Deportivo Camioneros 2+ goals

61%

Deportivo Camioneros 3+ goals

34%

Juventud de Bernal 1+ goals

56%

Juventud de Bernal 2+ goals

20%

Juventud de Bernal 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Camioneros (draw refunded)

82%

Juventud de Bernal (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Camioneros at home — creates 2.36, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Juventud de Bernal away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.77 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Camioneros attack 2.36 + Juventud de Bernal defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.06

Juventud de Bernal attack 0.95 + Deportivo Camioneros defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Deportivo Camioneros scores more

66%

level

20%

Juventud de Bernal scores more

14%

Deportivo Camioneros at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Deportivo Camioneros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff