Juventud de Bernal 1–1 Barrancas UMET

Juventud de Bernal

FT

1 – 1

Barrancas UMET

2/27/2024

Torneo Promocional Amateur · Apertura - 1Estadio Hugo Moyano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Juventud de Bernal19%

×Draw25%

Barrancas UMET56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juventud de BernalExpected goals in this matchBarrancas UMET

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.81

1.60

Juventud de Bernal

0.81

Barrancas UMET

1.60

Barrancas UMET creates 98% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 22 away

0.57

creates per match

0.95

2.24

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Juventud de Bernal

0.57

Barrancas UMET

0.95

allows per match

Juventud de Bernal

2.24

Barrancas UMET

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventud de Bernal+0.00on par

Barrancas UMET+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud de Bernal ↓

Barrancas UMET →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–114%

0–212%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Juventud de Bernal or draw

44%

Juventud de Bernal or Barrancas UMET

75%

Draw or Barrancas UMET

81%

Winning margin

Juventud de Bernal wins by 2+

6%

Barrancas UMET wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Juventud de Bernal 1+ goals

56%

Juventud de Bernal 2+ goals

19%

Juventud de Bernal 3+ goals

5%

Barrancas UMET 1+ goals

80%

Barrancas UMET 2+ goals

47%

Barrancas UMET 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Juventud de Bernal (draw refunded)

25%

Barrancas UMET (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventud de Bernal at home — creates 0.57, concedes 2.24 · 21 matches

Barrancas UMET away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventud de Bernal attack 0.57 + Barrancas UMET defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.81

Barrancas UMET attack 0.95 + Juventud de Bernal defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Juventud de Bernal scores more

19%

level

25%

Barrancas UMET scores more

56%

Barrancas UMET at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Barrancas UMET will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff