Barrancas UMET 1–1 Juventud de Bernal

Barrancas UMET

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Juventud de Bernal

7/19/2024

Torneo Promocional Amateur · Clausura - 1Estadio de Excursionistas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Barrancas UMET46%

×Draw28%

Juventud de Bernal27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barrancas UMETExpected goals in this matchJuventud de Bernal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.95

Barrancas UMET

1.34

Juventud de Bernal

0.95

Barrancas UMET creates 41% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

0.91

creates per match

0.95

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Barrancas UMET

0.91

Juventud de Bernal

0.95

allows per match

Barrancas UMET

0.95

Juventud de Bernal

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barrancas UMET+0.00on par

Juventud de Bernal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrancas UMET ↓

Juventud de Bernal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Barrancas UMET or draw

73%

Barrancas UMET or Juventud de Bernal

72%

Draw or Juventud de Bernal

54%

Winning margin

Barrancas UMET wins by 2+

21%

Juventud de Bernal wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Barrancas UMET 1+ goals

74%

Barrancas UMET 2+ goals

39%

Barrancas UMET 3+ goals

15%

Juventud de Bernal 1+ goals

61%

Juventud de Bernal 2+ goals

25%

Juventud de Bernal 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Barrancas UMET (draw refunded)

63%

Juventud de Bernal (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrancas UMET at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

Juventud de Bernal away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.77 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrancas UMET attack 0.91 + Juventud de Bernal defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.34

Juventud de Bernal attack 0.95 + Barrancas UMET defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Barrancas UMET scores more

46%

level

28%

Juventud de Bernal scores more

27%

Barrancas UMET at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Barrancas UMET will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff