Juventud Antoniana 1–0 CDJU Gualeguaychu

Juventud Antoniana

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

CDJU Gualeguaychu

J. Velazco 90+7' (pen)

4/3/2022

Torneo Federal A · Group B - 2Estadio Fray Honorato Pistoia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Juventud Antoniana53%

×Draw27%

CDJU Gualeguaychu20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juventud AntonianaExpected goals in this matchCDJU Gualeguaychu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.74

Juventud Antoniana

1.42

CDJU Gualeguaychu

0.74

Juventud Antoniana creates 92% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 56 away

1.25

creates per match

0.71

0.77

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Juventud Antoniana

1.25

CDJU Gualeguaychu

0.71

allows per match

Juventud Antoniana

0.77

CDJU Gualeguaychu

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventud Antoniana+0.00on par

CDJU Gualeguaychu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud Antoniana ↓

CDJU Gualeguaychu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Juventud Antoniana or draw

80%

Juventud Antoniana or CDJU Gualeguaychu

73%

Draw or CDJU Gualeguaychu

47%

Winning margin

Juventud Antoniana wins by 2+

27%

CDJU Gualeguaychu wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Juventud Antoniana 1+ goals

76%

Juventud Antoniana 2+ goals

41%

Juventud Antoniana 3+ goals

17%

CDJU Gualeguaychu 1+ goals

52%

CDJU Gualeguaychu 2+ goals

17%

CDJU Gualeguaychu 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Juventud Antoniana (draw refunded)

73%

CDJU Gualeguaychu (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventud Antoniana at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.77 · 81 matches

CDJU Gualeguaychu away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.59 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventud Antoniana attack 1.25 + CDJU Gualeguaychu defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.42

CDJU Gualeguaychu attack 0.71 + Juventud Antoniana defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Juventud Antoniana scores more

53%

level

27%

CDJU Gualeguaychu scores more

20%

Juventud Antoniana at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Juventud Antoniana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'

59'

59'

65'

65'

L. Fiorotto← G. Cervera

71'

G. Mbombaj← H. Hechalar

71'

M. Esparza← F. Velazco

81'

P. Espíndola← C. Churquina

85'

S. Olano← M. Barzola

90+7'

J. VelazcoPenalty

Juventud

CDJU

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Martos

59'▲L. Ceratto←▼O. Young

59'▲M. Vicedo←▼L. Villa

71'▲G. Mbombaj←▼H. Hechalar

71'▲M. Esparza←▼F. Velazco

81'▲P. Espíndola←▼C. Churquina

Juventud Antoniana substitutes

CerattoVicedoMbombajEsparzaEspíndola

Manager: N. Acosta

48'▲L. Medina←▼N. Trejo

65'▲M. Báez←▼A. Aguirre

65'▲L. Fiorotto←▼G. Cervera

85'▲S. Olano←▼M. Barzola

CDJU Gualeguaychu substitutes

MedinaBáezFiorottoOlano

Torneo Federal A: Juventud Antoniana 1–0 CDJU Gualeguaychu

Juventud Antoniana beat CDJU Gualeguaychu 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on April 3, 2022.

Goals: J. Velazco (90+7' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Fray Honorato Pistoia in Ciudad de Salta, Provincia de Salta.

Juventud Antoniana vs CDJU Gualeguaychu — Torneo Federal A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Torneo Federal A: Juventud Antoniana 1–0 CDJU Gualeguaychu