CDJU Gualeguaychu 2–2 Juventud Antoniana

CDJU Gualeguaychu

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Juventud Antoniana

7/16/2022

Torneo Federal A · Group B - 19Estadio Luis Delfino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

CDJU Gualeguaychu47%

×Draw29%

Juventud Antoniana24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CDJU GualeguaychuExpected goals in this matchJuventud Antoniana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.83

CDJU Gualeguaychu

1.28

Juventud Antoniana

0.83

CDJU Gualeguaychu creates 54% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 78 away

1.19

creates per match

0.58

1.09

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

CDJU Gualeguaychu

1.19

Juventud Antoniana

0.58

allows per match

CDJU Gualeguaychu

1.09

Juventud Antoniana

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CDJU Gualeguaychu+0.00on par

Juventud Antoniana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CDJU Gualeguaychu ↓

Juventud Antoniana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

CDJU Gualeguaychu or draw

76%

CDJU Gualeguaychu or Juventud Antoniana

71%

Draw or Juventud Antoniana

53%

Winning margin

CDJU Gualeguaychu wins by 2+

22%

Juventud Antoniana wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

CDJU Gualeguaychu 1+ goals

72%

CDJU Gualeguaychu 2+ goals

37%

CDJU Gualeguaychu 3+ goals

14%

Juventud Antoniana 1+ goals

56%

Juventud Antoniana 2+ goals

20%

Juventud Antoniana 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

CDJU Gualeguaychu (draw refunded)

66%

Juventud Antoniana (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CDJU Gualeguaychu at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.09 · 54 matches

Juventud Antoniana away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.38 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CDJU Gualeguaychu attack 1.19 + Juventud Antoniana defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.28

Juventud Antoniana attack 0.58 + CDJU Gualeguaychu defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

CDJU Gualeguaychu scores more

47%

level

29%

Juventud Antoniana scores more

24%

CDJU Gualeguaychu at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "CDJU Gualeguaychu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff