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Juve Stabia vs Chievo — Serie B 2018

Juve Stabia
Juve Stabia
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Chievo
Chievo
7/17/2020Serie BSerie B · Round 35Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Juve Stabia42%
×Draw28%
Chievo30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juve Stabia
1.30
Chievo
1.06

Juve Stabia creates 23% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 39 away

creates per match

Juve Stabia
1.42
Chievo
1.05

allows per match

Juve Stabia
1.08
Chievo
1.18

finishing

Juve Stabia+0.00on par
Chievo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juve Stabia ↓

Chievo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Juve Stabia or draw
70%
Juve Stabia or Chievo
72%
Draw or Chievo
58%

Winning margin

Juve Stabia wins by 2+
19%
Chievo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Juve Stabia 1+ goals
73%
Juve Stabia 2+ goals
37%
Juve Stabia 3+ goals
14%
Chievo 1+ goals
65%
Chievo 2+ goals
29%
Chievo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Juve Stabia (draw refunded)
58%
Chievo (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juve Stabia at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.08 · 60 matches

Chievo away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.18 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juve Stabia attack 1.42 + Chievo defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.30

Chievo attack 1.05 + Juve Stabia defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Juve Stabia scores more
42%
level
28%
Chievo scores more
30%

Juve Stabia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Juve Stabia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Juve Stabia 3–2 Chievo

Juve Stabia beat Chievo 3-2 in Serie B on July 17, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti in Castellammare di Stabia.