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Chievo vs Juve Stabia — Serie B 2018

Chievo
Chievo
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Juve Stabia
Juve Stabia
12/13/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 16Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Chievo53%
×Draw26%
Juve Stabia21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chievo
1.54
Juve Stabia
0.87

Chievo creates 77% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 60 away

creates per match

Chievo
1.54
Juve Stabia
0.92

allows per match

Chievo
0.82
Juve Stabia
1.53

finishing

Chievo+0.00on par
Juve Stabia+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chievo ↓

Juve Stabia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Chievo or draw
79%
Chievo or Juve Stabia
74%
Draw or Juve Stabia
47%

Winning margin

Chievo wins by 2+
28%
Juve Stabia wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Chievo 1+ goals
79%
Chievo 2+ goals
45%
Chievo 3+ goals
20%
Juve Stabia 1+ goals
58%
Juve Stabia 2+ goals
22%
Juve Stabia 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Chievo (draw refunded)
71%
Juve Stabia (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chievo at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.82 · 39 matches

Juve Stabia away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chievo attack 1.54 + Juve Stabia defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.54

Juve Stabia attack 0.92 + Chievo defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Chievo scores more
53%
level
26%
Juve Stabia scores more
21%

Chievo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Chievo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chievo vs Juve Stabia

Juve Stabia beat Chievo 3-2 in Serie B on December 13, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi in Verona.