Juve Stabia 1–1 Benevento: Result & Stats | Serie B

Juve Stabia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Benevento

11/9/2019

Serie B · Round 12Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Juve Stabia38%

×Draw28%

Benevento34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juve StabiaExpected goals in this matchBenevento

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.16

Juve Stabia

1.23

Benevento

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 79 away

1.42

creates per match

1.24

1.08

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Juve Stabia

1.42

Benevento

1.24

allows per match

Juve Stabia

1.08

Benevento

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juve Stabia+0.00on par

Benevento+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juve Stabia ↓

Benevento →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Juve Stabia or draw

66%

Juve Stabia or Benevento

72%

Draw or Benevento

62%

Winning margin

Juve Stabia wins by 2+

16%

Benevento wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Juve Stabia 1+ goals

71%

Juve Stabia 2+ goals

35%

Juve Stabia 3+ goals

13%

Benevento 1+ goals

69%

Benevento 2+ goals

32%

Benevento 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Juve Stabia (draw refunded)

52%

Benevento (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juve Stabia at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.08 · 60 matches

Benevento away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.05 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juve Stabia attack 1.42 + Benevento defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.23

Benevento attack 1.24 + Juve Stabia defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Juve Stabia scores more

38%

level

28%

Benevento scores more

34%

Juve Stabia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Juve Stabia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff