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Benevento vs Juve Stabia — Serie B 2018

Benevento
Benevento
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Juve Stabia
Juve Stabia
6/29/2020Serie BSerie B · Round 31Stadio Ciro Vigorito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Benevento52%
×Draw25%
Juve Stabia23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benevento
1.63
Juve Stabia
0.99

Benevento creates 65% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 60 away

creates per match

Benevento
1.72
Juve Stabia
0.92

allows per match

Benevento
1.05
Juve Stabia
1.53

finishing

Benevento+0.00on par
Juve Stabia+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benevento ↓

Juve Stabia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Benevento or draw
77%
Benevento or Juve Stabia
75%
Draw or Juve Stabia
48%

Winning margin

Benevento wins by 2+
28%
Juve Stabia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Benevento 1+ goals
80%
Benevento 2+ goals
48%
Benevento 3+ goals
22%
Juve Stabia 1+ goals
63%
Juve Stabia 2+ goals
26%
Juve Stabia 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Benevento (draw refunded)
69%
Juve Stabia (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benevento at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.05 · 79 matches

Juve Stabia away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benevento attack 1.72 + Juve Stabia defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.63

Juve Stabia attack 0.92 + Benevento defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Benevento scores more
52%
level
25%
Juve Stabia scores more
23%

Benevento at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Benevento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Benevento vs Juve Stabia

Benevento beat Juve Stabia 1-0 in Serie B on June 29, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito in Benevento.