Juve Stabia 3–1 Bari: Result & Stats | Serie B

Juve Stabia

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bari

G. Leone 90+5'

A. Adorante 47'

K. Piscopo 21'

G. Pereiro 75'

2/9/2025

Serie B · Round 25Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Juve Stabia44%

×Draw27%

Bari29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juve StabiaExpected goals in this matchBari

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.06

Juve Stabia

1.39

Bari

1.06

Juve Stabia creates 31% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 82 away

1.42

creates per match

1.05

1.08

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Juve Stabia

1.42

Bari

1.05

allows per match

Juve Stabia

1.08

Bari

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juve Stabia+0.00on par

Bari+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juve Stabia ↓

Bari →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Juve Stabia or draw

71%

Juve Stabia or Bari

73%

Draw or Bari

56%

Winning margin

Juve Stabia wins by 2+

21%

Bari wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Juve Stabia 1+ goals

75%

Juve Stabia 2+ goals

40%

Juve Stabia 3+ goals

16%

Bari 1+ goals

65%

Bari 2+ goals

29%

Bari 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Juve Stabia (draw refunded)

61%

Bari (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juve Stabia at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.08 · 60 matches

Bari away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.35 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juve Stabia attack 1.42 + Bari defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.39

Bari attack 1.05 + Juve Stabia defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Juve Stabia scores more

44%

level

27%

Bari scores more

29%

Juve Stabia at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Juve Stabia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

K. Piscopo

Juve Stabia · F

8.9

Match Events

21'

K. Piscopo↳ M. Ruggero

25'

D. Quaranta← M. Bellich

47'

A. Adorante

52'

Christian Pierobon

60'

Mehdi Dorval

60'

G. Pereiro← G. Maggiore

60'

K. Lasagna← A. Favilli

68'

Francesco Vicari

70'

N. Bellomo← N. Bonfanti

70'

A. Tripaldelli← M. Dorval

73'

G. Leone← C. Pierobon

74'

L. Candellone← F. Maistro

75'

G. Pereiro↳ R. Pucino

85'

C. Falletti← C. Favasuli

87'

C. Andreoni← M. Ruggero

88'

M. Meli← A. Adorante

90+2'

Romano Floriani Mussolini

90+2'

Nicola Bellomo

90'

Gastón Pereiro

90+5'

G. Leone↳ K. Piscopo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuveBari

Overview

56%Possession44%

14Total Shots14

4Corners5

12Fouls16

Shots

14Total Shots14

7On Target3

4Off Target5

3Blocked6

10Inside Box9

4Outside Box5

Passing

56%Possession44%

393Total Passes299

277Accurate Passes210

70%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls16

2Yellow Cards4

0Offsides1

Serie B: Juve Stabia 3–1 Bari

Juve Stabia beat Bari 3-1 in Serie B on February 9, 2025.

Goals: K. Piscopo (21'), A. Adorante (47'), G. Pereiro (75'), G. Leone (90+5').

Juve Stabia controlled possession (56%) and registered 14 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti in Castellammare di Stabia.

Juve Stabia vs Bari — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Juve Stabia 3–1 Bari