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Jutrzenka Giebułtów vs Chełmianka Chełm — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Jutrzenka Giebułtów
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
FT
0 – 1
Chełmianka Chełm
Chełmianka Chełm
10/17/2020III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 15Gminny Stadion Sportowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Jutrzenka Giebułtów25%
×Draw20%
Chełmianka Chełm55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jutrzenka Giebułtów
1.46
Chełmianka Chełm
2.24

Chełmianka Chełm creates 53% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 104 away

creates per match

Jutrzenka Giebułtów
1.50
Chełmianka Chełm
1.73

allows per match

Jutrzenka Giebułtów
2.75
Chełmianka Chełm
1.42

finishing

Jutrzenka Giebułtów+0.00on par
Chełmianka Chełm+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jutrzenka Giebułtów ↓

Chełmianka Chełm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Jutrzenka Giebułtów or draw
45%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów or Chełmianka Chełm
80%
Draw or Chełmianka Chełm
75%

Winning margin

Jutrzenka Giebułtów wins by 2+
11%
Chełmianka Chełm wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Jutrzenka Giebułtów 1+ goals
77%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów 2+ goals
43%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów 3+ goals
18%
Chełmianka Chełm 1+ goals
89%
Chełmianka Chełm 2+ goals
65%
Chełmianka Chełm 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Jutrzenka Giebułtów (draw refunded)
31%
Chełmianka Chełm (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jutrzenka Giebułtów at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.75 · 20 matches

Chełmianka Chełm away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.42 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jutrzenka Giebułtów attack 1.50 + Chełmianka Chełm defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.46

Chełmianka Chełm attack 1.73 + Jutrzenka Giebułtów defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Jutrzenka Giebułtów scores more
25%
level
20%
Chełmianka Chełm scores more
55%

Chełmianka Chełm at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Chełmianka Chełm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jutrzenka Giebułtów vs Chełmianka Chełm

Chełmianka Chełm beat Jutrzenka Giebułtów 1-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on October 17, 2020.

The match was played at Gminny Stadion Sportowy in Zabierzów.