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Chełmianka Chełm vs Jutrzenka Giebułtów — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Chełmianka Chełm
Chełmianka Chełm
FT
1 – 0
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
5/19/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 36Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Chełmianka Chełm63%
×Draw20%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chełmianka Chełm
2.19
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
1.04

Chełmianka Chełm creates 111% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 20 away

creates per match

Chełmianka Chełm
1.77
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
0.90

allows per match

Chełmianka Chełm
1.18
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
2.60

finishing

Chełmianka Chełm+0.00on par
Jutrzenka Giebułtów+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chełmianka Chełm ↓

Jutrzenka Giebułtów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Chełmianka Chełm or draw
83%
Chełmianka Chełm or Jutrzenka Giebułtów
80%
Draw or Jutrzenka Giebułtów
37%

Winning margin

Chełmianka Chełm wins by 2+
40%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Chełmianka Chełm 1+ goals
89%
Chełmianka Chełm 2+ goals
64%
Chełmianka Chełm 3+ goals
37%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów 1+ goals
65%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów 2+ goals
28%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Chełmianka Chełm (draw refunded)
79%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chełmianka Chełm at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.18 · 105 matches

Jutrzenka Giebułtów away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chełmianka Chełm attack 1.77 + Jutrzenka Giebułtów defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.19

Jutrzenka Giebułtów attack 0.90 + Chełmianka Chełm defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Chełmianka Chełm scores more
63%
level
20%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów scores more
17%

Chełmianka Chełm at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Chełmianka Chełm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Chełmianka Chełm 1–0 Jutrzenka Giebułtów

Chełmianka Chełm beat Jutrzenka Giebułtów 1-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on May 19, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Chełm.