Jutrzenka Giebułtów 0–6 Avia Świdnik

Jutrzenka Giebułtów

FT

0 – 6

Avia Świdnik

9/5/2020

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 8Gminny Stadion Sportowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Jutrzenka Giebułtów21%

×Draw20%

Avia Świdnik60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jutrzenka GiebułtówExpected goals in this matchAvia Świdnik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

2.32

Jutrzenka Giebułtów

1.31

Avia Świdnik

2.32

Avia Świdnik creates 77% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 104 away

1.50

creates per match

1.89

2.75

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Jutrzenka Giebułtów

1.50

Avia Świdnik

1.89

allows per match

Jutrzenka Giebułtów

2.75

Avia Świdnik

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jutrzenka Giebułtów+0.00on par

Avia Świdnik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jutrzenka Giebułtów ↓

Avia Świdnik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Jutrzenka Giebułtów or draw

40%

Jutrzenka Giebułtów or Avia Świdnik

80%

Draw or Avia Świdnik

79%

Winning margin

Jutrzenka Giebułtów wins by 2+

8%

Avia Świdnik wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Jutrzenka Giebułtów 1+ goals

73%

Jutrzenka Giebułtów 2+ goals

38%

Jutrzenka Giebułtów 3+ goals

14%

Avia Świdnik 1+ goals

90%

Avia Świdnik 2+ goals

67%

Avia Świdnik 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Jutrzenka Giebułtów (draw refunded)

26%

Avia Świdnik (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jutrzenka Giebułtów at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.75 · 20 matches

Avia Świdnik away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.12 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jutrzenka Giebułtów attack 1.50 + Avia Świdnik defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.31

Avia Świdnik attack 1.89 + Jutrzenka Giebułtów defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Jutrzenka Giebułtów scores more

21%

level

20%

Avia Świdnik scores more

60%

Avia Świdnik at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Avia Świdnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff