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Avia Świdnik vs Jutrzenka Giebułtów — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Avia Świdnik
Avia Świdnik
FT
6 – 0
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
5/12/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 29Stadion Świdnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Avia Świdnik70%
×Draw17%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avia Świdnik
2.42
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
0.94

Avia Świdnik creates 157% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 20 away

creates per match

Avia Świdnik
2.24
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
0.90

allows per match

Avia Świdnik
0.98
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
2.60

finishing

Avia Świdnik+0.00on par
Jutrzenka Giebułtów+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avia Świdnik ↓

Jutrzenka Giebułtów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Avia Świdnik or draw
87%
Avia Świdnik or Jutrzenka Giebułtów
83%
Draw or Jutrzenka Giebułtów
30%

Winning margin

Avia Świdnik wins by 2+
47%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Avia Świdnik 1+ goals
91%
Avia Świdnik 2+ goals
69%
Avia Świdnik 3+ goals
43%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów 1+ goals
61%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów 2+ goals
24%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Avia Świdnik (draw refunded)
84%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avia Świdnik at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.98 · 105 matches

Jutrzenka Giebułtów away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avia Świdnik attack 2.24 + Jutrzenka Giebułtów defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.42

Jutrzenka Giebułtów attack 0.90 + Avia Świdnik defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Avia Świdnik scores more
70%
level
17%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów scores more
13%

Avia Świdnik at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Avia Świdnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Avia Świdnik 6–0 Jutrzenka Giebułtów

Avia Świdnik beat Jutrzenka Giebułtów 6-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on May 12, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Świdnik in Świdnik.