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Jutrzenka Giebułtów vs Łagów — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Jutrzenka Giebułtów
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
FT
0 – 3
Łagów
Łagów
2/28/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 22Stadion Miejski KS Prądniczanka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Jutrzenka Giebułtów23%
×Draw21%
Łagów56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jutrzenka Giebułtów
1.26
Łagów
2.06

Łagów creates 63% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 45 away

creates per match

Jutrzenka Giebułtów
1.50
Łagów
1.36

allows per match

Jutrzenka Giebułtów
2.75
Łagów
1.02

finishing

Jutrzenka Giebułtów+0.00on par
Łagów+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jutrzenka Giebułtów ↓

Łagów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Jutrzenka Giebułtów or draw
44%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów or Łagów
79%
Draw or Łagów
77%

Winning margin

Jutrzenka Giebułtów wins by 2+
9%
Łagów wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Jutrzenka Giebułtów 1+ goals
72%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów 2+ goals
36%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów 3+ goals
13%
Łagów 1+ goals
87%
Łagów 2+ goals
61%
Łagów 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Jutrzenka Giebułtów (draw refunded)
29%
Łagów (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jutrzenka Giebułtów at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.75 · 20 matches

Łagów away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jutrzenka Giebułtów attack 1.50 + Łagów defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.26

Łagów attack 1.36 + Jutrzenka Giebułtów defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Jutrzenka Giebułtów scores more
23%
level
21%
Łagów scores more
56%

Łagów at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Łagów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jutrzenka Giebułtów vs Łagów

Łagów beat Jutrzenka Giebułtów 3-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on February 28, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski KS Prądniczanka in Krakow.