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Łagów vs Jutrzenka Giebułtów — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Łagów
Łagów
FT
0 – 1
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
8/2/2020III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 1Stadion w Łagówie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Łagów62%
×Draw20%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Łagów
2.19
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
1.09

Łagów creates 101% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 20 away

creates per match

Łagów
1.78
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
0.90

allows per match

Łagów
1.28
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
2.60

finishing

Łagów+0.00on par
Jutrzenka Giebułtów+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Łagów ↓

Jutrzenka Giebułtów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Łagów or draw
82%
Łagów or Jutrzenka Giebułtów
80%
Draw or Jutrzenka Giebułtów
38%

Winning margin

Łagów wins by 2+
39%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Łagów 1+ goals
89%
Łagów 2+ goals
64%
Łagów 3+ goals
37%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów 1+ goals
66%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów 2+ goals
30%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Łagów (draw refunded)
78%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Łagów at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.28 · 46 matches

Jutrzenka Giebułtów away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Łagów attack 1.78 + Jutrzenka Giebułtów defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.19

Jutrzenka Giebułtów attack 0.90 + Łagów defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Łagów scores more
62%
level
20%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów scores more
18%

Łagów at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Łagów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Łagów 0–1 Jutrzenka Giebułtów

Jutrzenka Giebułtów beat Łagów 1-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on August 2, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion w Łagówie in Łagów.