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Junkeren vs Fløya — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Junkeren
Junkeren
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fløya
Fløya
S. Chooly 80'
I. Unhjem 58'
L. L. Bendiksen 54'
8/31/20253. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 18Nordlandshallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Junkeren67%
×Draw15%
Fløya18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Junkeren
3.34
Fløya
1.76

Junkeren creates 90% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Junkeren
3.92
Fløya
2.38

allows per match

Junkeren
1.15
Fløya
2.77

finishing

Junkeren+0.00on par
Fløya+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junkeren ↓

Fløya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Junkeren or draw
82%
Junkeren or Fløya
85%
Draw or Fløya
33%

Winning margin

Junkeren wins by 2+
48%
Fløya wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Junkeren 1+ goals
96%
Junkeren 2+ goals
84%
Junkeren 3+ goals
63%
Fløya 1+ goals
83%
Fløya 2+ goals
52%
Fløya 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Junkeren (draw refunded)
79%
Fløya (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junkeren at home — creates 3.92, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Fløya away — creates 2.38, concedes 2.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junkeren attack 3.92 + Fløya defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 3.34

Fløya attack 2.38 + Junkeren defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Junkeren scores more
67%
level
15%
Fløya scores more
18%

Junkeren at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Junkeren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'
L. L. Bendiksen
58'
I. Unhjem
80'
S. Chooly
Junkeren
Fløya
J. Kildal
Manager: J. Kildal
G. Olsen
Manager: G. Olsen

3. Division - Girone 1: Junkeren 2–1 Fløya

Junkeren beat Fløya 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on August 31, 2025.

Goals: L. L. Bendiksen (54'), I. Unhjem (58'), S. Chooly (80').

The match was played at Nordlandshallen in Bodo.