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Fløya vs Junkeren — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Fløya
Fløya
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Junkeren
Junkeren
A. Barosen 78'
T. Rengard 49', 39'
6/1/20253. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 8Fløyabanen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fløya31%
×Draw20%
Junkeren48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fløya
1.84
Junkeren
2.30

Junkeren creates 25% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Fløya
2.46
Junkeren
2.92

allows per match

Fløya
1.69
Junkeren
1.23

finishing

Fløya+0.00on par
Junkeren+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fløya ↓

Junkeren →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Fløya or draw
52%
Fløya or Junkeren
80%
Draw or Junkeren
69%

Winning margin

Fløya wins by 2+
16%
Junkeren wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Fløya 1+ goals
84%
Fløya 2+ goals
55%
Fløya 3+ goals
28%
Junkeren 1+ goals
90%
Junkeren 2+ goals
67%
Junkeren 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Fløya (draw refunded)
39%
Junkeren (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fløya at home — creates 2.46, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Junkeren away — creates 2.92, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fløya attack 2.46 + Junkeren defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.84

Junkeren attack 2.92 + Fløya defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fløya scores more
31%
level
20%
Junkeren scores more
48%

Junkeren at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Junkeren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
T. Rengard
49'
T. Rengard
78'
A. Barosen
Fløya
Junkeren
G. Olsen
Manager: G. Olsen
J. Kildal
Manager: J. Kildal

Match Recap: Fløya vs Junkeren

Junkeren beat Fløya 3-0 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on June 1, 2025.

Goals: T. Rengard (39', 49'), A. Barosen (78').

The match was played at Fløyabanen in Tromsø.