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Junior W vs Deportivo Cali W — Liga Femenina 2020

Junior W
Junior W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Deportivo Cali W
Deportivo Cali W
3/8/2023Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Apertura - 5Estadio Romelio Martínez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Junior W29%
×Draw25%
Deportivo Cali W46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Junior W
1.17
Deportivo Cali W
1.54

Deportivo Cali W creates 32% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 61 away

creates per match

Junior W
1.33
Deportivo Cali W
1.52

allows per match

Junior W
1.57
Deportivo Cali W
1.00

finishing

Junior W+0.00on par
Deportivo Cali W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junior W ↓

Deportivo Cali W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Junior W or draw
54%
Junior W or Deportivo Cali W
75%
Draw or Deportivo Cali W
71%

Winning margin

Junior W wins by 2+
12%
Deportivo Cali W wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Junior W 1+ goals
69%
Junior W 2+ goals
33%
Junior W 3+ goals
11%
Deportivo Cali W 1+ goals
79%
Deportivo Cali W 2+ goals
45%
Deportivo Cali W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Junior W (draw refunded)
39%
Deportivo Cali W (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junior W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.57 · 42 matches

Deportivo Cali W away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.00 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junior W attack 1.33 + Deportivo Cali W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Deportivo Cali W attack 1.52 + Junior W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Junior W scores more
29%
level
25%
Deportivo Cali W scores more
46%

Deportivo Cali W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Deportivo Cali W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Junior W vs Deportivo Cali W

Deportivo Cali W beat Junior W 1-0 in Liga Femenina on March 8, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Romelio Martínez in Barranquilla.