Deportivo Cali W 2–0 Junior W: Result & Stats

Deportivo Cali W

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Junior W

4/23/2026

Liga Femenina · Round 8Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Deportivo Cali W64%

×Draw22%

Junior W13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo Cali WExpected goals in this matchJunior W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

0.66

Deportivo Cali W

1.78

Junior W

0.66

Deportivo Cali W creates 170% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 43 away

1.93

creates per match

0.79

0.52

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Deportivo Cali W

1.93

Junior W

0.79

allows per match

Deportivo Cali W

0.52

Junior W

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Cali W+0.00on par

Junior W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali W ↓

Junior W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali W or draw

87%

Deportivo Cali W or Junior W

78%

Draw or Junior W

36%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali W wins by 2+

38%

Junior W wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali W 1+ goals

83%

Deportivo Cali W 2+ goals

53%

Deportivo Cali W 3+ goals

26%

Junior W 1+ goals

48%

Junior W 2+ goals

14%

Junior W 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali W (draw refunded)

83%

Junior W (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali W at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.52 · 60 matches

Junior W away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.63 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali W attack 1.93 + Junior W defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.78

Junior W attack 0.79 + Deportivo Cali W defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Deportivo Cali W scores more

64%

level

22%

Junior W scores more

13%

Deportivo Cali W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Deportivo Cali W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff