Junior 4–1 Independiente del Valle: Result & Stats

Junior

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Independiente del Valle

F. Hinestroza 85'

C. Valencia 78', 55', 44'

G. Torres 20'

9/23/2020

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 4Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Junior51%

×Draw25%

Independiente del Valle24%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuniorExpected goals in this matchIndependiente del Valle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.99

Junior

1.56

Independiente del Valle

0.99

Junior creates 58% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 24 away

1.29

creates per match

0.92

1.06

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Junior

1.29

Independiente del Valle

0.92

allows per match

Junior

1.06

Independiente del Valle

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Junior+0.00on par

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junior ↓

Independiente del Valle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Junior or draw

76%

Junior or Independiente del Valle

75%

Draw or Independiente del Valle

49%

Winning margin

Junior wins by 2+

26%

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Junior 1+ goals

79%

Junior 2+ goals

46%

Junior 3+ goals

21%

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

63%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

26%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Junior (draw refunded)

68%

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junior at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.83 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junior attack 1.29 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.56

Independiente del Valle attack 0.92 + Junior defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Junior scores more

51%

level

25%

Independiente del Valle scores more

24%

Junior at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Junior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

C. Valencia

Junior · F

8.9

Match Events

20'

G. Torres↳ J. Murillo

34'

B. Caicedo

44'

C. Valencia

55'

C. Valencia↳ E. Cetré

57'

D. Rosero

58'

M. Piedrahita

69'

C. Ortiz← J. Sánchez

69'

F. Guerrero← B. Caicedo

69'

M. Caicedo← E. Mera

72'

J. Murillo

76'

L. González← E. Cetré

76'

F. Viáfara← S. Cárdenas

77'

E. Montaño← L. Faravelli

78'

C. Valencia↳ Didier Moreno

84'

D. Leiton← G. Torres

85'

M. Rangel← C. Valencia

85'

F. Hinestroza

90+3'

F. Guerrero

90+3'

D. Murillo← F. Hinestroza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuniorIndependiente

Overview

33%Possession67%

15Total Shots6

4Corners4

16Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots6

9On Target1

2Off Target1

4Blocked4

8Inside Box2

7Outside Box4

Passing

33%Possession67%

271Total Passes555

200Accurate Passes476

74%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

16Fouls15

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Junior 4–1 Independiente del Valle

Junior beat Independiente del Valle 4-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on September 23, 2020.

Goals: G. Torres (20'), C. Valencia (44', 55', 78'), F. Hinestroza (85').

Independiente del Valle controlled possession (67%) and registered 6 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez in Barranquilla.

Junior vs Independiente del Valle — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Junior 4–1 Independiente del Valle