Independiente del Valle 3–0 Junior: Result & Stats

Independiente del Valle

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Junior

L. Faravelli 90+4'

M. Caicedo 84'

F. Guerrero 60'

3/12/2020

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 2Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Independiente del Valle63%

×Draw21%

Junior15%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente del ValleExpected goals in this matchJunior

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.81

Independiente del Valle

1.92

Junior

0.81

Independiente del Valle creates 137% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 18 away

2.28

creates per match

0.83

0.80

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Independiente del Valle

2.28

Junior

0.83

allows per match

Independiente del Valle

0.80

Junior

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Junior+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Junior →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw

85%

Independiente del Valle or Junior

79%

Draw or Junior

37%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

38%

Junior wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

85%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

57%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

30%

Junior 1+ goals

56%

Junior 2+ goals

19%

Junior 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

81%

Junior (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 2.28, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

Junior away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 2.28 + Junior defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.92

Junior attack 0.83 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more

63%

level

21%

Junior scores more

15%

Independiente del Valle at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

L. Faravelli

Independiente del Valle · M

8.6

Match Events

35'

Gabriel Fuentes

60'

F. Guerrero↳ L. Faravelli

63'

T. Gutiérrez← E. Cetré

64'

German Mera

66'

Fredy Hinestroza

67'

J. Sánchez← F. Guerrero

77'

M. Caicedo← E. Mera

84'

M. Caicedo↳ C. Pellerano

85'

J. Murillo← G. Torres

90+4'

L. Faravelli

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteJunior

Overview

67%Possession33%

21Total Shots7

9Corners4

5Fouls11

Shots

21Total Shots7

8On Target3

8Off Target2

5Blocked2

3Inside Box4

18Outside Box3

Passing

67%Possession33%

571Total Passes277

507Accurate Passes205

89%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

5Fouls11

0Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Independiente del Valle vs Junior

Independiente del Valle beat Junior 3-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on March 12, 2020.

Goals: F. Guerrero (60'), M. Caicedo (84'), L. Faravelli (90+4').

Independiente del Valle controlled possession (67%) and registered 21 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa in Quito.

Independiente del Valle vs Junior — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Independiente del Valle vs Junior