Junior 3–2 Deportivo Pereira: Result & Stats

Junior

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Pereira

Titi 90' (pen), 90'

B. Castrillon 57' (pen)

J. Moya 77'

D. Quintero 51' (pen)

10/18/2025

Primera A · Clausura - 16Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Junior53%

×Draw26%

Deportivo Pereira21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuniorExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Pereira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.86

Junior

1.52

Deportivo Pereira

0.86

Junior creates 77% more chances

Season form · 202 home / 131 away

1.60

creates per match

0.93

0.80

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Junior

1.60

Deportivo Pereira

0.93

allows per match

Junior

0.80

Deportivo Pereira

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Junior+0.00on par

Deportivo Pereira+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junior ↓

Deportivo Pereira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Junior or draw

79%

Junior or Deportivo Pereira

74%

Draw or Deportivo Pereira

47%

Winning margin

Junior wins by 2+

27%

Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Junior 1+ goals

78%

Junior 2+ goals

45%

Junior 3+ goals

20%

Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals

58%

Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals

21%

Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Junior (draw refunded)

71%

Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junior at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.80 · 202 matches

Deportivo Pereira away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.43 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junior attack 1.60 + Deportivo Pereira defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.52

Deportivo Pereira attack 0.93 + Junior defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Junior scores more

53%

level

26%

Deportivo Pereira scores more

21%

Junior at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Junior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

Titi

Junior · F

8.3

Match Events

15'

E. A. Moreno Gomez← E. Velasco

19'

25'

41'

45+5'

45+5'

Daniel RiveraCard upgrade

46'

J. Cuenu← T. Gutierrez

50'

Jhon LargachaPenalty confirmed

51'

D. QuinteroPenalty

54'

B. Castrillon← G. Celis

57'

B. CastrillonPenalty

63'

José Cuenú

63'

José Moya

70'

Guillermo Paiva

73'

Titi← G. Paiva

74'

C. Esparragoza← Y. Chara

74'

S. J. Merheg← O. Albornoz

77'

J. Moya↳ Y. Cabrera

80'

E. Herrera← C. Baez

81'

J. Ararat← J. Largacha

81'

Kelvin Osorio← Y. Cabrera

82'

90+9'

90'

90+1'

90'

TitiPenalty

90'

Titi↳ C. Esparragoza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuniorDeportivo

Overview

58%Possession42%

10Total Shots10

2Corners8

7Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots10

4On Target3

4Off Target4

2Blocked3

8Inside Box5

2Outside Box5

Passing

58%Possession42%

405Total Passes291

338Accurate Passes230

83%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls9

7Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

2Offsides1

Primera A: Junior 3–2 Deportivo Pereira

Junior beat Deportivo Pereira 3-2 in Primera A on October 18, 2025.

Goals: D. Quintero (51' pen), B. Castrillon (57' pen), J. Moya (77'), Titi (90' pen, 90').

Junior controlled possession (58%) and registered 10 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez in Barranquilla.

Junior vs Deportivo Pereira — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Junior 3–2 Deportivo Pereira