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Deportivo Pereira vs Junior — Primera A 2018

Deportivo Pereira
Deportivo Pereira
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Junior
Junior
2/3/2026Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 4Estadio Centenario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Deportivo Pereira39%
×Draw29%
Junior32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Pereira
1.19
Junior
1.04

Deportivo Pereira creates 14% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 201 away

creates per match

Deportivo Pereira
1.24
Junior
0.96

allows per match

Deportivo Pereira
1.13
Junior
1.14

finishing

Deportivo Pereira+0.00on par
Junior+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pereira ↓

Junior →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Pereira or draw
68%
Deportivo Pereira or Junior
71%
Draw or Junior
61%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+
17%
Junior wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals
70%
Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals
33%
Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals
12%
Junior 1+ goals
65%
Junior 2+ goals
28%
Junior 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)
55%
Junior (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pereira at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.13 · 127 matches

Junior away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.14 · 201 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pereira attack 1.24 + Junior defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Junior attack 0.96 + Deportivo Pereira defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Deportivo Pereira scores more
39%
level
29%
Junior scores more
32%

Deportivo Pereira at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Deportivo Pereira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Pereira vs Junior

Junior beat Deportivo Pereira 3-2 in Primera A on February 3, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Centenario in Armenia.