Junior 4–3 Deportivo Pasto: Result & Stats

Junior

FT

4 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Deportivo Pasto

5/3/2026

Primera A · Apertura - 19Estadio Romelio Martinez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 172+ matches

Junior53%

×Draw27%

Deportivo Pasto21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuniorExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Pasto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.80

Junior

1.46

Deportivo Pasto

0.80

Junior creates 83% more chances

Season form · 202 home / 172 away

1.60

creates per match

0.79

0.80

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Junior

1.60

Deportivo Pasto

0.79

allows per match

Junior

0.80

Deportivo Pasto

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Junior+0.00on par

Deportivo Pasto+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junior ↓

Deportivo Pasto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Junior or draw

79%

Junior or Deportivo Pasto

73%

Draw or Deportivo Pasto

47%

Winning margin

Junior wins by 2+

27%

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Junior 1+ goals

77%

Junior 2+ goals

43%

Junior 3+ goals

18%

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals

55%

Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals

19%

Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Junior (draw refunded)

72%

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junior at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.80 · 202 matches

Deportivo Pasto away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.32 · 172 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junior attack 1.60 + Deportivo Pasto defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.46

Deportivo Pasto attack 0.79 + Junior defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Junior scores more

53%

level

27%

Deportivo Pasto scores more

21%

Junior at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Junior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff