Deportivo Pasto 3–3 Junior: Result & Stats

Deportivo Pasto

FT

3 – 3

HT: 3 – 1

Junior

4/12/2025

Primera A · Apertura - 13Estadio Departamental Libertad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 173+ matches

Deportivo Pasto43%

×Draw29%

Junior28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo PastoExpected goals in this matchJunior

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.91

Deportivo Pasto

1.20

Junior

0.91

Deportivo Pasto creates 32% more chances

Season form · 173 home / 201 away

1.26

creates per match

0.96

0.85

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Deportivo Pasto

1.26

Junior

0.96

allows per match

Deportivo Pasto

0.85

Junior

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Pasto+0.00on par

Junior+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pasto ↓

Junior →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Pasto or draw

72%

Deportivo Pasto or Junior

71%

Draw or Junior

57%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+

19%

Junior wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals

70%

Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals

34%

Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals

12%

Junior 1+ goals

60%

Junior 2+ goals

23%

Junior 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)

60%

Junior (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pasto at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.85 · 173 matches

Junior away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.14 · 201 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pasto attack 1.26 + Junior defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.20

Junior attack 0.96 + Deportivo Pasto defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Deportivo Pasto scores more

43%

level

29%

Junior scores more

28%

Deportivo Pasto at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Deportivo Pasto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff