Junior 3–0 Deportivo Cali: Result & Stats

Junior

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Deportivo Cali

S. Rodríguez 90+6' (pen)

B. Castrillón 73'

D. Moreno 5'

11/15/2024

Primera A · Clausura - 19Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Junior34%

×Draw28%

Deportivo Cali38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuniorExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.23

Junior

1.15

Deportivo Cali

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

1.14

creates per match

1.06

1.40

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Junior

1.14

Deportivo Cali

1.06

allows per match

Junior

1.40

Deportivo Cali

1.17

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Junior+0.26scores more

Deportivo Cali+0.19scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junior ↓

Deportivo Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Junior or draw

62%

Junior or Deportivo Cali

72%

Draw or Deportivo Cali

66%

Winning margin

Junior wins by 2+

14%

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Junior 1+ goals

68%

Junior 2+ goals

32%

Junior 3+ goals

11%

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

71%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

35%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Junior (draw refunded)

47%

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junior at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Deportivo Cali away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.17 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junior attack 1.14 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Deportivo Cali attack 1.06 + Junior defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Junior scores more

34%

level

28%

Deportivo Cali scores more

38%

Deportivo Cali at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

D. Moreno

Junior · M

7.9

Match Events

5'

D. Moreno↳ Yeferson Moreno

34'

Rafael Bustamante

46'

O. Acosta← Á. Plata

46'

A. Mejía← R. Bustamante

54'

Nicolás Zalazar

54'

F. Montero← J. Moreno

67'

B. Castrillón← Yairo Moreno

67'

S. Rodríguez← C. Bacca

69'

J. Arango← J. Barrera

73'

B. Castrillón

75'

J. Vélez← J. Enamorado

80'

E. Herrera← J. Navia

80'

L. González← Y. Chará

84'

Luis Daniel González

84'

Luis Daniel GonzálezCard upgrade

85'

Juan Camilo Cantillo

87'

J. Angulo← Y. Gómez

90+2'

Steven RodríguezPenalty confirmed

90+6'

S. RodríguezPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuniorDeportivo

Overview

47%Possession53%

12Total Shots10

2Corners2

11Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots10

6On Target2

5Off Target4

1Blocked4

6Inside Box5

6Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

393Total Passes441

331Accurate Passes374

84%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

2Offsides0