Deportivo Cali 0–2 Junior: Result & Stats

Deportivo Cali

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Junior

Titi 67'

G. Paiva 34'

7/13/2025

Primera A · Clausura - 1Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Deportivo Cali44%

×Draw28%

Junior28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CaliExpected goals in this matchJunior

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.02

Deportivo Cali

1.34

Junior

1.02

Deportivo Cali creates 31% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

1.06

creates per match

1.01

1.02

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Deportivo Cali

1.06

Junior

1.01

allows per match

Deportivo Cali

1.02

Junior

1.62

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Deportivo Cali-0.26scores less

Junior+0.19scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

Junior →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw

72%

Deportivo Cali or Junior

72%

Draw or Junior

56%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

20%

Junior wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

74%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

39%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

15%

Junior 1+ goals

64%

Junior 2+ goals

27%

Junior 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

61%

Junior (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.02 · 10 matches

Junior away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.62 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.06 + Junior defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.34

Junior attack 1.01 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more

44%

level

28%

Junior scores more

28%

Deportivo Cali at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Y. Chara

Junior · M

8.0

Match Events

7'

Fabián Castillo

22'

J. Cantillo← R. Bustamante

24'

34'

38'

44'

47'

G. Celis← C. Esparragoza

57'

Yimmi Chará

59'

J. Salazar← B. Castrillon

67'

Titi↳ Y. Chara

69'

J. Aponza←

69'

Luis Orejuela← Javier Reina

72'

J. Canchimbo← Y. Chara

79'

J. Arango← J. Moreno

79'

C. Graciano← F. Viafara

84'

S. Acuna← G. Paiva

84'

J. Navia← Titi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoJunior

Overview

26%Possession74%

7Total Shots9

0.68Expected Goals (xG)1.96

6Corners2

12Fouls17

Shots

7Total Shots9

0On Target4

4Off Target2

3Blocked3

4Inside Box7

3Outside Box2

Passing

26%Possession74%

210Total Passes622

135Accurate Passes546

64%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls17

1Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

0Offsides2

Primera A: Deportivo Cali 0–2 Junior

Junior beat Deportivo Cali 2-0 in Primera A on July 13, 2025.

Goals: G. Paiva (34'), Titi (67').

Junior controlled possession (74%) and registered 9 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Deportivo Cali in Palmira.

Deportivo Cali vs Junior — Primera A 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Deportivo Cali 0–2 Junior