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Junior vs Cucuta — Primera A 2018

Junior
Junior
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cucuta
Cucuta
T. Gutiérrez 73' (pen)
11/24/2019Primera APrimera A · Clausura - Quadrangular - 5Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Junior48%
×Draw28%
Cucuta24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Junior
1.37
Cucuta
0.89

Junior creates 54% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 6 away

creates per match

Junior
1.38
Cucuta
0.76

allows per match

Junior
1.02
Cucuta
1.36

finishing

Junior+0.69scores more
Cucuta+0.41scores more

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junior ↓

Cucuta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Junior or draw
76%
Junior or Cucuta
72%
Draw or Cucuta
52%

Winning margin

Junior wins by 2+
23%
Cucuta wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Junior 1+ goals
75%
Junior 2+ goals
40%
Junior 3+ goals
16%
Cucuta 1+ goals
59%
Cucuta 2+ goals
22%
Cucuta 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Junior (draw refunded)
66%
Cucuta (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junior at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.02 · 15 matches

Cucuta away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.36 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junior attack 1.38 + Cucuta defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.37

Cucuta attack 0.76 + Junior defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Junior scores more
48%
level
28%
Cucuta scores more
24%

Junior at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Junior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
R. PérezJuniorJunior · D
7.2

Match Events

13'
J. Pérez← D. Achucarro
32'
German Mera
34'
Harrinson Mancilla
43'
Rafael Pérez
44'
Edwuin Cetre
45'
Mauricio Duarte
55'
D. Moreno← F. Hinestroza
56'
Luis Sandoval
58'
L. González← L. Sandoval
64'
J. Agudelo← E. Valencia
73'
T. GutiérrezPenalty
77'
A. Sarmiento← H. Mancilla
81'
Mauricio Duarte
81'
Mauricio Duarte
88'
Andrés Sarmiento
89'
L. Narváez← D. Moreno

Possession

63%Junior

Shots

14Junior

Pass accuracy

55%Junior

Statistics

JuniorCucuta
Overview
63%Possession37%
14Total Shots6
4Corners0
21Fouls21
Shots
14Total Shots6
2On Target1
8Off Target5
4Blocked0
10Inside Box4
4Outside Box2
Passing
63%Possession37%
465Total Passes277
379Accurate Passes185
82%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
21Fouls21
4Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
0Offsides3

Junior 1 – 0 Cucuta

Junior beat Cucuta 1-0 in Primera A on November 24, 2019.

Goals: T. Gutiérrez (73' pen).

Junior controlled possession (63%) and registered 14 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez in Barranquilla.