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Cucuta vs Junior — Primera A 2018

Cucuta
Cucuta
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Junior
Junior
L. Hernandez 37'
L. Muriel 32'
4/24/2026Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 18Estadio General Santander

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Cucuta35%
×Draw28%
Junior37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cucuta
1.18
Junior
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 16 away

creates per match

Cucuta
1.06
Junior
1.16

allows per match

Cucuta
1.29
Junior
1.30

finishing

Cucuta+0.27scores more
Junior+0.28scores more

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cucuta ↓

Junior →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cucuta or draw
63%
Cucuta or Junior
72%
Draw or Junior
65%

Winning margin

Cucuta wins by 2+
15%
Junior wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Cucuta 1+ goals
69%
Cucuta 2+ goals
33%
Cucuta 3+ goals
12%
Junior 1+ goals
71%
Junior 2+ goals
35%
Junior 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Cucuta (draw refunded)
48%
Junior (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cucuta at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.29 · 6 matches

Junior away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.30 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cucuta attack 1.06 + Junior defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.18

Junior attack 1.16 + Cucuta defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cucuta scores more
35%
level
28%
Junior scores more
37%

Junior at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Junior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
K. LondonoCucutaCucuta · M
6.3

Match Events

2'
Luis Muriel
13'
Mauricio Duarte
32'
L. Muriel↳ B. Castrillon
37'
L. Hernandez↳ L. Berdugo
46'
Y. Chara← B. Castrillon
46'
C. Barrios← J. Sarmiento
59'
E. Arizalas← F. Castaneda
59'
L. Rios← L. Hernandez
59'
J. Canchimbo← C. Bacca
60'
J. Guerrero← J. Navia
64'
G. Paiva← H. Rivera
74'
O. Albornoz← V. Mejia
74'
S. Orozco← K. Londono
78'
Jean Carlos Pestaña
90'
B. Montano← E. M. Duarte Barajas

Statistics

CucutaJunior
Overview
1.43Expected Goals (xG)0.22
Goalkeeping
0.01Goals Prevented0.01

Primera A: Cucuta 1–1 Junior

Cucuta and Junior drew 1-1 in Primera A on April 24, 2026.

Goals: L. Muriel (32'), L. Hernandez (37').

The match was played at Estadio General Santander in Cucuta.