Junior Managua 2–1 Jalapa: Result & Stats

Junior Managua

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Jalapa

O. Reyes 60'

B. Montiel 52'

Y. Vivas 42'

3/14/2021

Primera Division · Clausura - 11Estadio Nacional de Fútbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Junior Managua44%

×Draw26%

Jalapa31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Junior ManaguaExpected goals in this matchJalapa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.21

Junior Managua

1.49

Jalapa

1.21

Junior Managua creates 23% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 128 away

0.89

creates per match

0.91

1.50

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Junior Managua

0.89

Jalapa

0.91

allows per match

Junior Managua

1.50

Jalapa

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Junior Managua+0.00on par

Jalapa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junior Managua ↓

Jalapa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Junior Managua or draw

69%

Junior Managua or Jalapa

74%

Draw or Jalapa

56%

Winning margin

Junior Managua wins by 2+

21%

Jalapa wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Junior Managua 1+ goals

77%

Junior Managua 2+ goals

44%

Junior Managua 3+ goals

19%

Jalapa 1+ goals

70%

Jalapa 2+ goals

34%

Jalapa 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Junior Managua (draw refunded)

59%

Jalapa (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junior Managua at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

Jalapa away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.09 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junior Managua attack 0.89 + Jalapa defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.49

Jalapa attack 0.91 + Junior Managua defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Junior Managua scores more

44%

level

26%

Jalapa scores more

31%

Junior Managua at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Junior Managua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

52'

60'

62'

73'

75'

J. Guadamuz← C. Brenes

85'

J. Araica← B. Zúniga

90+1'

C. Aragón← I. Sequeira

Junior

Jalapa

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: J. Ruíz

75'▲J. Guadamuz←▼C. Brenes

90+1'▲C. Aragón←▼I. Sequeira

Junior Managua substitutes

GuadamuzAragónNarvaezGonzálezUgarteAcevedoRodríguez

Manager: C. Martino

62'▲M. García←▼M. Medina

73'▲L. Borge←▼M. Montiel

85'▲J. Araica←▼B. Zúniga

Jalapa substitutes

GarcíaBorgeAraicaTalaveraBlandonMaradiagaGaleano

Primera Division: Junior Managua 2–1 Jalapa

Junior Managua beat Jalapa 2-1 in Primera Division on March 14, 2021.

Goals: Y. Vivas (42'), B. Montiel (52'), O. Reyes (60').

The match was played at Estadio Nacional de Fútbol in Managua.

Junior Managua vs Jalapa — Primera Division 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera Division: Junior Managua 2–1 Jalapa