Jalapa 1–0 Junior Managua: Result & Stats

Jalapa

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Junior Managua

M. Medina 3'

10/1/2020

Primera Division · Apertura - 11Estadio Alejandro Ramos Turcio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Jalapa54%

×Draw26%

Junior Managua20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JalapaExpected goals in this matchJunior Managua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.83

Jalapa

1.54

Junior Managua

0.83

Jalapa creates 86% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 18 away

1.30

creates per match

0.89

0.78

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Jalapa

1.30

Junior Managua

0.89

allows per match

Jalapa

0.78

Junior Managua

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jalapa+0.00on par

Junior Managua+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jalapa ↓

Junior Managua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Jalapa or draw

80%

Jalapa or Junior Managua

74%

Draw or Junior Managua

46%

Winning margin

Jalapa wins by 2+

28%

Junior Managua wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Jalapa 1+ goals

79%

Jalapa 2+ goals

45%

Jalapa 3+ goals

20%

Junior Managua 1+ goals

56%

Junior Managua 2+ goals

20%

Junior Managua 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Jalapa (draw refunded)

73%

Junior Managua (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jalapa at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.78 · 129 matches

Junior Managua away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jalapa attack 1.30 + Junior Managua defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.54

Junior Managua attack 0.89 + Jalapa defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Jalapa scores more

54%

level

26%

Junior Managua scores more

20%

Jalapa at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Jalapa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

M. Medina

46'

L. Borge← R. Pabón

46'

O. Soto← Y. Rodríguez

59'

P. Espinoza← E. Narvaez

61'

R. López← W. Wilson

80'

G. Ramos← M. Montiel

86'

Hexell López← E. Centeno

Jalapa

Junior

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: C. Martino

46'▲L. Borge←▼R. Pabón

80'▲G. Ramos←▼M. Montiel

86'▲Hexell López←▼E. Centeno

Jalapa substitutes

BorgeRamosLópezCastilloMorenoTalaveraBriones

Manager: T. Acevedo

46'▲O. Soto←▼Y. Rodríguez

59'▲P. Espinoza←▼E. Narvaez

61'▲R. López←▼W. Wilson

Junior Managua substitutes

SotoEspinozaLópezTéllezGonzalezCruzZambrana