Junior Managua 0–1 Diriangén: Result & Stats

Junior Managua

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Diriangén

Maycon Santana 88' (pen)

4/25/2021

Primera Division · Clausura - 15Estadio Nacional de Fútbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Junior Managua24%

×Draw25%

Diriangén51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Junior ManaguaExpected goals in this matchDiriangén

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.56

Junior Managua

0.98

Diriangén

1.56

Diriangén creates 59% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 145 away

0.89

creates per match

1.63

1.50

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Junior Managua

0.89

Diriangén

1.63

allows per match

Junior Managua

1.50

Diriangén

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Junior Managua+0.00on par

Diriangén+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junior Managua ↓

Diriangén →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Junior Managua or draw

49%

Junior Managua or Diriangén

75%

Draw or Diriangén

76%

Winning margin

Junior Managua wins by 2+

8%

Diriangén wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Junior Managua 1+ goals

62%

Junior Managua 2+ goals

26%

Junior Managua 3+ goals

8%

Diriangén 1+ goals

79%

Diriangén 2+ goals

46%

Diriangén 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Junior Managua (draw refunded)

32%

Diriangén (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junior Managua at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

Diriangén away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.06 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junior Managua attack 0.89 + Diriangén defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.98

Diriangén attack 1.63 + Junior Managua defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Junior Managua scores more

24%

level

25%

Diriangén scores more

51%

Diriangén at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Diriangén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

L. Coronel← J. Calderon

58'

O. Reyes← O. Soto

63'

A. Acuña← J. Zapata

65'

A. Talavera← T. López

71'

E. Mendoza

71'

E. Mendoza

80'

E. Narvaez← I. Sequeira

83'

M. Zambrana← S. Castillo

88'

Maycon SantanaPenalty

Junior

Diriangén

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Ruíz

58'▲O. Reyes←▼O. Soto

80'▲E. Narvaez←▼I. Sequeira

83'▲M. Zambrana←▼S. Castillo

Junior Managua substitutes

ReyesNarvaezZambranaAragónEspinozaGonzálezGuadamuz

Manager: Flavio da Silva

46'▲L. Coronel←▼J. Calderon

63'▲A. Acuña←▼J. Zapata

65'▲A. Talavera←▼T. López

Diriangén substitutes

CoronelAcuñaTalaveraJarquínHernándezRojasCoronel