Diriangén 2–0 Junior Managua: Result & Stats

Diriangén

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Junior Managua

Maycon Santana 62', 52'

2/11/2021

Primera Division · Clausura - 6Estadio Cacique Diriangén

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Diriangén65%

×Draw21%

Junior Managua14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DiriangénExpected goals in this matchJunior Managua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

0.80

Diriangén

1.99

Junior Managua

0.80

Diriangén creates 149% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 18 away

2.20

creates per match

0.89

0.71

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Diriangén

2.20

Junior Managua

0.89

allows per match

Diriangén

0.71

Junior Managua

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Diriangén+0.00on par

Junior Managua+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diriangén ↓

Junior Managua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Diriangén or draw

86%

Diriangén or Junior Managua

79%

Draw or Junior Managua

35%

Winning margin

Diriangén wins by 2+

40%

Junior Managua wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Diriangén 1+ goals

86%

Diriangén 2+ goals

59%

Diriangén 3+ goals

32%

Junior Managua 1+ goals

55%

Junior Managua 2+ goals

19%

Junior Managua 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Diriangén (draw refunded)

82%

Junior Managua (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diriangén at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.71 · 147 matches

Junior Managua away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diriangén attack 2.20 + Junior Managua defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.99

Junior Managua attack 0.89 + Diriangén defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Diriangén scores more

65%

level

21%

Junior Managua scores more

14%

Diriangén at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Diriangén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

A. Zúñiga← Robinson Luiz

52'

Maycon Santana

58'

O. Soto← Á. Hernández

62'

Maycon Santana

63'

M. Zambrana← B. Montiel

70'

T. López← J. Moreno

74'

A. Bermúdez← O. Reyes

79'

Marel Álvarez← J. Calderon

90+2'

E. Mercado

90+2'

E. Mercado

Diriangén

Junior

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

Manager: Flavio da Silva

46'▲A. Zúñiga←▼Robinson Luiz

70'▲T. López←▼J. Moreno

79'▲Marel Álvarez←▼J. Calderon

Diriangén substitutes

ZúñigaLópezÁlvarezAcuñaMendozaCalderonTalavera

Manager: T. Acevedo

58'▲O. Soto←▼Á. Hernández

63'▲M. Zambrana←▼B. Montiel

74'▲A. Bermúdez←▼O. Reyes

Junior Managua substitutes

SotoZambranaBermúdezBrenesErringtonNarvaezEspinoza