Jungnang Chorus Mustang vs Gijang United — K4 League 2026
K4 League · Round 17Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 9+ matches
Jungnang Chorus Mustang52%
Gijang United24%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Jungnang Chorus Mustang creates 59% more chances
Season form · 9 home / 9 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Jungnang Chorus Mustang ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Jungnang Chorus Mustang at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches
Gijang United away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Jungnang Chorus Mustang attack 1.33 + Gijang United defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67
Gijang United attack 0.89 + Jungnang Chorus Mustang defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.05
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 52%?"
Jungnang Chorus Mustang at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 52% does not mean "Jungnang Chorus Mustang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Jinju Citizen
Jincheon
Geumsan InsamJungnang Chorus Mustang
Jecheon Citizen
Namyangju
Sejong SA
Geoje Citizen
Pyeongchang UnitedGijang United
Haman
Seosan Pioneer
Pyeongtaek CitizenIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Jungnang Chorus Mustang host Gijang United on Saturday, 11 July 2026 at 08:00. The match is part of the K4 League 2026/2027 season.
K4 League: Jungnang Chorus Mustang 3–0 Gijang United
Jungnang Chorus Mustang beat Gijang United 3-0 in K4 League on July 11, 2026.