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Gijang United vs Jungnang Chorus Mustang — K4 League 2026

Gijang United
Gijang United
FT
0 – 1
Jungnang Chorus Mustang
Jungnang Chorus Mustang
3/29/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Gijang United28%
×Draw23%
Jungnang Chorus Mustang49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gijang United
1.35
Jungnang Chorus Mustang
1.85

Jungnang Chorus Mustang creates 37% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Gijang United
1.57
Jungnang Chorus Mustang
2.14

allows per match

Gijang United
1.57
Jungnang Chorus Mustang
1.14

finishing

Gijang United+0.00on par
Jungnang Chorus Mustang+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gijang United ↓

Jungnang Chorus Mustang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Gijang United or draw
51%
Gijang United or Jungnang Chorus Mustang
77%
Draw or Jungnang Chorus Mustang
72%

Winning margin

Gijang United wins by 2+
12%
Jungnang Chorus Mustang wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Gijang United 1+ goals
74%
Gijang United 2+ goals
39%
Gijang United 3+ goals
15%
Jungnang Chorus Mustang 1+ goals
84%
Jungnang Chorus Mustang 2+ goals
55%
Jungnang Chorus Mustang 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Gijang United (draw refunded)
36%
Jungnang Chorus Mustang (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gijang United at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Jungnang Chorus Mustang away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gijang United attack 1.57 + Jungnang Chorus Mustang defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.35

Jungnang Chorus Mustang attack 2.14 + Gijang United defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Gijang United scores more
28%
level
23%
Jungnang Chorus Mustang scores more
49%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Jungnang Chorus Mustang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gijang United vs Jungnang Chorus Mustang

Jungnang Chorus Mustang beat Gijang United 1-0 in K4 League on March 29, 2026.