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Junak vs Hrvatski vitez — Third NL - Jug 2019

Junak
Junak
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hrvatski vitez
Hrvatski vitez
3/1/2025Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 16Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Junak60%
×Draw21%
Hrvatski vitez19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Junak
2.05
Hrvatski vitez
1.06

Junak creates 93% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 93 away

creates per match

Junak
2.13
Hrvatski vitez
1.11

allows per match

Junak
1.02
Hrvatski vitez
1.97

finishing

Junak+0.00on par
Hrvatski vitez+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junak ↓

Hrvatski vitez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Junak or draw
81%
Junak or Hrvatski vitez
79%
Draw or Hrvatski vitez
40%

Winning margin

Junak wins by 2+
36%
Hrvatski vitez wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Junak 1+ goals
87%
Junak 2+ goals
61%
Junak 3+ goals
33%
Hrvatski vitez 1+ goals
65%
Hrvatski vitez 2+ goals
29%
Hrvatski vitez 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Junak (draw refunded)
76%
Hrvatski vitez (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junak at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.02 · 86 matches

Hrvatski vitez away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.97 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junak attack 2.13 + Hrvatski vitez defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.05

Hrvatski vitez attack 1.11 + Junak defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Junak scores more
60%
level
21%
Hrvatski vitez scores more
19%

Junak at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Junak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Junak vs Hrvatski vitez

Junak beat Hrvatski vitez 2-1 in Third NL - Jug on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Sinj.