Hrvatski vitez 3–0 Junak: Result & Stats

Hrvatski vitez

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Junak

3/7/2026

Third NL - Jug · South - 17Gradski stadion Gordan Demo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Hrvatski vitez53%

×Draw24%

Junak23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hrvatski vitezExpected goals in this matchJunak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.07

Hrvatski vitez

1.74

Junak

1.07

Hrvatski vitez creates 63% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 86 away

1.99

creates per match

1.20

0.95

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Hrvatski vitez

1.99

Junak

1.20

allows per match

Hrvatski vitez

0.95

Junak

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hrvatski vitez+0.00on par

Junak+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hrvatski vitez ↓

Junak →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Hrvatski vitez or draw

77%

Hrvatski vitez or Junak

76%

Draw or Junak

47%

Winning margin

Hrvatski vitez wins by 2+

29%

Junak wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Hrvatski vitez 1+ goals

82%

Hrvatski vitez 2+ goals

52%

Hrvatski vitez 3+ goals

25%

Junak 1+ goals

66%

Junak 2+ goals

29%

Junak 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Hrvatski vitez (draw refunded)

69%

Junak (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hrvatski vitez at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.95 · 93 matches

Junak away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.49 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hrvatski vitez attack 1.99 + Junak defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.74

Junak attack 1.20 + Hrvatski vitez defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Hrvatski vitez scores more

53%

level

24%

Junak scores more

23%

Hrvatski vitez at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hrvatski vitez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff