Jubilo Iwata 3–2 Mito Hollyhock: Result & Stats

Jubilo Iwata

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Mito Hollyhock

2/15/2025

J2 League · Round 1Yamaha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Jubilo Iwata46%

×Draw25%

Mito Hollyhock29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jubilo IwataExpected goals in this matchMito Hollyhock

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.18

Jubilo Iwata

1.56

Mito Hollyhock

1.18

Jubilo Iwata creates 32% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 165 away

1.84

creates per match

1.20

1.16

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Jubilo Iwata

1.84

Mito Hollyhock

1.20

allows per match

Jubilo Iwata

1.16

Mito Hollyhock

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jubilo Iwata+0.00on par

Mito Hollyhock+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jubilo Iwata ↓

Mito Hollyhock →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Jubilo Iwata or draw

71%

Jubilo Iwata or Mito Hollyhock

75%

Draw or Mito Hollyhock

54%

Winning margin

Jubilo Iwata wins by 2+

23%

Mito Hollyhock wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Jubilo Iwata 1+ goals

79%

Jubilo Iwata 2+ goals

46%

Jubilo Iwata 3+ goals

21%

Mito Hollyhock 1+ goals

69%

Mito Hollyhock 2+ goals

33%

Mito Hollyhock 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Jubilo Iwata (draw refunded)

62%

Mito Hollyhock (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jubilo Iwata at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.16 · 82 matches

Mito Hollyhock away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.28 · 165 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jubilo Iwata attack 1.84 + Mito Hollyhock defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.56

Mito Hollyhock attack 1.20 + Jubilo Iwata defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Jubilo Iwata scores more

46%

level

25%

Mito Hollyhock scores more

29%

Jubilo Iwata at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Jubilo Iwata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff