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Jubilo Iwata vs Mito Hollyhock — J2 League 2018

Jubilo Iwata
Jubilo Iwata
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Mito Hollyhock
Mito Hollyhock
11/4/2023J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 41Yamaha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Jubilo Iwata47%
×Draw25%
Mito Hollyhock28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jubilo Iwata
1.58
Mito Hollyhock
1.17

Jubilo Iwata creates 35% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 169 away

creates per match

Jubilo Iwata
1.84
Mito Hollyhock
1.19

allows per match

Jubilo Iwata
1.14
Mito Hollyhock
1.31

finishing

Jubilo Iwata+0.00on par
Mito Hollyhock+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jubilo Iwata ↓

Mito Hollyhock →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Jubilo Iwata or draw
72%
Jubilo Iwata or Mito Hollyhock
75%
Draw or Mito Hollyhock
53%

Winning margin

Jubilo Iwata wins by 2+
24%
Mito Hollyhock wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Jubilo Iwata 1+ goals
79%
Jubilo Iwata 2+ goals
47%
Jubilo Iwata 3+ goals
21%
Mito Hollyhock 1+ goals
69%
Mito Hollyhock 2+ goals
33%
Mito Hollyhock 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Jubilo Iwata (draw refunded)
62%
Mito Hollyhock (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jubilo Iwata at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.14 · 85 matches

Mito Hollyhock away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.31 · 169 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jubilo Iwata attack 1.84 + Mito Hollyhock defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.58

Mito Hollyhock attack 1.19 + Jubilo Iwata defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Jubilo Iwata scores more
47%
level
25%
Mito Hollyhock scores more
28%

Jubilo Iwata at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Jubilo Iwata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jubilo Iwata vs Mito Hollyhock

Jubilo Iwata beat Mito Hollyhock 5-0 in J2 League on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Yamaha Stadium in Iwata.