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Jubilee vs Freeport — LFA First Division 2020

Jubilee
Jubilee
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Freeport
Freeport
3/13/2023LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 20Antoinette Tubman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Jubilee26%
×Draw23%
Freeport51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jubilee
1.21
Freeport
1.78

Freeport creates 47% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 75 away

creates per match

Jubilee
0.81
Freeport
1.31

allows per match

Jubilee
2.24
Freeport
1.61

finishing

Jubilee+0.00on par
Freeport+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jubilee ↓

Freeport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Jubilee or draw
49%
Jubilee or Freeport
77%
Draw or Freeport
74%

Winning margin

Jubilee wins by 2+
10%
Freeport wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Jubilee 1+ goals
70%
Jubilee 2+ goals
34%
Jubilee 3+ goals
12%
Freeport 1+ goals
83%
Freeport 2+ goals
53%
Freeport 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Jubilee (draw refunded)
34%
Freeport (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jubilee at home — creates 0.81, concedes 2.24 · 21 matches

Freeport away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.61 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jubilee attack 0.81 + Freeport defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.21

Freeport attack 1.31 + Jubilee defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Jubilee scores more
26%
level
23%
Freeport scores more
51%

Freeport at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Freeport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jubilee vs Freeport

Jubilee and Freeport drew 1-1 in LFA First Division on March 13, 2023.

The match was played at Antoinette Tubman Stadium in Monrovia.