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Freeport vs Jubilee — LFA First Division 2020

Freeport
Freeport
FT
2 – 2
Jubilee
Jubilee
10/14/2022LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 7TUSA Sport Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Freeport46%
×Draw22%
Jubilee32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Freeport
1.89
Jubilee
1.56

Freeport creates 21% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 26 away

creates per match

Freeport
1.50
Jubilee
1.31

allows per match

Freeport
1.82
Jubilee
2.27

finishing

Freeport+0.00on par
Jubilee+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freeport ↓

Jubilee →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Freeport or draw
68%
Freeport or Jubilee
78%
Draw or Jubilee
54%

Winning margin

Freeport wins by 2+
25%
Jubilee wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Freeport 1+ goals
85%
Freeport 2+ goals
56%
Freeport 3+ goals
29%
Jubilee 1+ goals
79%
Jubilee 2+ goals
46%
Jubilee 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Freeport (draw refunded)
59%
Jubilee (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freeport at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.82 · 74 matches

Jubilee away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.27 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freeport attack 1.50 + Jubilee defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.89

Jubilee attack 1.31 + Freeport defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Freeport scores more
46%
level
22%
Jubilee scores more
32%

Freeport at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Freeport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Freeport vs Jubilee

Freeport and Jubilee drew 2-2 in LFA First Division on October 14, 2022.

The match was played at TUSA Sport Field in Monrovia.