Jubilee 1–4 Cece United: Result & Stats

Jubilee

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Cece United

11/3/2022

LFA First Division · Round 10Antoinette Tubman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Jubilee28%

×Draw22%

Cece United50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JubileeExpected goals in this matchCece United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.91

Jubilee

1.39

Cece United

1.91

Cece United creates 37% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 26 away

0.81

creates per match

1.58

2.24

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Jubilee

0.81

Cece United

1.58

allows per match

Jubilee

2.24

Cece United

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jubilee+0.00on par

Cece United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jubilee ↓

Cece United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Jubilee or draw

50%

Jubilee or Cece United

78%

Draw or Cece United

72%

Winning margin

Jubilee wins by 2+

12%

Cece United wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Jubilee 1+ goals

75%

Jubilee 2+ goals

40%

Jubilee 3+ goals

16%

Cece United 1+ goals

85%

Cece United 2+ goals

57%

Cece United 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Jubilee (draw refunded)

36%

Cece United (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jubilee at home — creates 0.81, concedes 2.24 · 21 matches

Cece United away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.96 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jubilee attack 0.81 + Cece United defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.39

Cece United attack 1.58 + Jubilee defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Jubilee scores more

28%

level

22%

Cece United scores more

50%

Cece United at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cece United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff