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Cece United vs Jubilee — LFA First Division 2020

Cece United
Cece United
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Jubilee
Jubilee
4/1/2023LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 23Antoinette Tubman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Cece United47%
×Draw24%
Jubilee29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cece United
1.70
Jubilee
1.27

Cece United creates 34% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Cece United
1.12
Jubilee
1.31

allows per match

Cece United
1.23
Jubilee
2.27

finishing

Cece United+0.00on par
Jubilee+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cece United ↓

Jubilee →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Cece United or draw
71%
Cece United or Jubilee
76%
Draw or Jubilee
53%

Winning margin

Cece United wins by 2+
25%
Jubilee wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cece United 1+ goals
82%
Cece United 2+ goals
51%
Cece United 3+ goals
24%
Jubilee 1+ goals
72%
Jubilee 2+ goals
36%
Jubilee 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cece United (draw refunded)
62%
Jubilee (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cece United at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.23 · 26 matches

Jubilee away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.27 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cece United attack 1.12 + Jubilee defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.70

Jubilee attack 1.31 + Cece United defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cece United scores more
47%
level
24%
Jubilee scores more
29%

Cece United at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cece United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: Cece United 0–3 Jubilee

Jubilee beat Cece United 3-0 in LFA First Division on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Antoinette Tubman Stadium in Monrovia.