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Juazeiro BA vs Jacobinense — Baiano - 2 2019

Juazeiro BA
Juazeiro BAadvanced
FT
2 – 1
Jacobinense
Jacobinense
7/17/2022Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Semi-finalsEstádio Adauto Moraes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Juazeiro BA62%
×Draw23%
Jacobinense16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juazeiro BA
1.80
Jacobinense
0.77

Juazeiro BA creates 134% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

Juazeiro BA
1.91
Jacobinense
0.90

allows per match

Juazeiro BA
0.64
Jacobinense
1.70

finishing

Juazeiro BA+0.00on par
Jacobinense+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juazeiro BA ↓

Jacobinense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Juazeiro BA or draw
84%
Juazeiro BA or Jacobinense
77%
Draw or Jacobinense
38%

Winning margin

Juazeiro BA wins by 2+
36%
Jacobinense wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Juazeiro BA 1+ goals
83%
Juazeiro BA 2+ goals
54%
Juazeiro BA 3+ goals
27%
Jacobinense 1+ goals
54%
Jacobinense 2+ goals
18%
Jacobinense 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Juazeiro BA (draw refunded)
80%
Jacobinense (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juazeiro BA at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

Jacobinense away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juazeiro BA attack 1.91 + Jacobinense defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.80

Jacobinense attack 0.90 + Juazeiro BA defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Juazeiro BA scores more
62%
level
23%
Jacobinense scores more
16%

Juazeiro BA at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Juazeiro BA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano - 2: Juazeiro BA 2–1 Jacobinense

Juazeiro BA beat Jacobinense 2-1 in Baiano - 2 on July 17, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Adauto Moraes in Juazeiro, Bahia.