Jacobinense 1–0 Juazeiro BA: Result & Stats

Jacobinense

Pens

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Juazeiro BA

7/23/2022

Baiano - 2 · Semi-finalsEstádio Municipal José Rocha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Jacobinense34%

×Draw30%

Juazeiro BA36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JacobinenseExpected goals in this matchJuazeiro BA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.08

Jacobinense

1.03

Juazeiro BA

1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

1.17

creates per match

0.67

1.50

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Jacobinense

1.17

Juazeiro BA

0.67

allows per match

Jacobinense

1.50

Juazeiro BA

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jacobinense+0.00on par

Juazeiro BA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jacobinense ↓

Juazeiro BA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Jacobinense or draw

64%

Jacobinense or Juazeiro BA

70%

Draw or Juazeiro BA

66%

Winning margin

Jacobinense wins by 2+

13%

Juazeiro BA wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Jacobinense 1+ goals

64%

Jacobinense 2+ goals

28%

Jacobinense 3+ goals

9%

Juazeiro BA 1+ goals

66%

Juazeiro BA 2+ goals

29%

Juazeiro BA 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Jacobinense (draw refunded)

48%

Juazeiro BA (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jacobinense at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

Juazeiro BA away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jacobinense attack 1.17 + Juazeiro BA defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.03

Juazeiro BA attack 0.67 + Jacobinense defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Jacobinense scores more

34%

level

30%

Juazeiro BA scores more

36%

Juazeiro BA at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Juazeiro BA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff