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Juazeirense vs Ceara — Copa do Nordeste 2020

Juazeirense
Juazeirense
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ceara
Ceara
2/4/2024Copa do NordesteCopa do Nordeste · Group Stage - 1Estádio Adauto Moraes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Juazeirense41%
×Draw29%
Ceara31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juazeirense
1.23
Ceara
1.02

Juazeirense creates 21% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 33 away

creates per match

Juazeirense
1.57
Ceara
1.24

allows per match

Juazeirense
0.79
Ceara
0.88

finishing

Juazeirense+0.00on par
Ceara+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juazeirense ↓

Ceara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Juazeirense or draw
69%
Juazeirense or Ceara
71%
Draw or Ceara
59%

Winning margin

Juazeirense wins by 2+
18%
Ceara wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Juazeirense 1+ goals
71%
Juazeirense 2+ goals
35%
Juazeirense 3+ goals
13%
Ceara 1+ goals
64%
Ceara 2+ goals
27%
Ceara 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Juazeirense (draw refunded)
57%
Ceara (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juazeirense at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

Ceara away — creates 1.24, concedes 0.88 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juazeirense attack 1.57 + Ceara defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.23

Ceara attack 1.24 + Juazeirense defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Juazeirense scores more
41%
level
29%
Ceara scores more
31%

Juazeirense at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Juazeirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Juazeirense vs Ceara

Ceara beat Juazeirense 1-0 in Copa do Nordeste on February 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Adauto Moraes in Juazeiro, Bahia.