Ceara 2–0 Juazeirense: Result & Stats

Ceara

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Juazeirense

3/19/2025

Copa do Nordeste · Group Stage - 6Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ceara69%

×Draw19%

Juazeirense12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CearaExpected goals in this matchJuazeirense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

0.70

Ceara

2.06

Juazeirense

0.70

Ceara creates 194% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 14 away

1.97

creates per match

0.64

0.76

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Ceara

1.97

Juazeirense

0.64

allows per match

Ceara

0.76

Juazeirense

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ceara+0.00on par

Juazeirense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceara ↓

Juazeirense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Ceara or draw

88%

Ceara or Juazeirense

81%

Draw or Juazeirense

31%

Winning margin

Ceara wins by 2+

44%

Juazeirense wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Ceara 1+ goals

87%

Ceara 2+ goals

61%

Ceara 3+ goals

34%

Juazeirense 1+ goals

50%

Juazeirense 2+ goals

16%

Juazeirense 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Ceara (draw refunded)

86%

Juazeirense (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceara at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.76 · 34 matches

Juazeirense away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceara attack 1.97 + Juazeirense defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.06

Juazeirense attack 0.64 + Ceara defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Ceara scores more

69%

level

19%

Juazeirense scores more

12%

Ceara at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Ceara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff