Juazeirense 4–0 Atlético Acreano: Result & Stats

Juazeirense

FT

4 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Atlético Acreano

Toni Galego 25', 20'

Salatiel 14', 13'

7/14/2018

Serie C · Round 14Estádio Adauto Moraes (Juazeiro, Bahia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Juazeirense68%

×Draw22%

Atlético Acreano10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuazeirenseExpected goals in this matchAtlético Acreano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.48

Juazeirense

1.73

Atlético Acreano

0.48

Juazeirense creates 260% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 17 away

1.33

creates per match

0.53

0.44

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Juazeirense

1.33

Atlético Acreano

0.53

allows per match

Juazeirense

0.44

Atlético Acreano

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juazeirense+0.00on par

Atlético Acreano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juazeirense ↓

Atlético Acreano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Juazeirense or draw

90%

Juazeirense or Atlético Acreano

78%

Draw or Atlético Acreano

32%

Winning margin

Juazeirense wins by 2+

40%

Atlético Acreano wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Juazeirense 1+ goals

82%

Juazeirense 2+ goals

52%

Juazeirense 3+ goals

25%

Atlético Acreano 1+ goals

38%

Atlético Acreano 2+ goals

8%

Atlético Acreano 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Juazeirense (draw refunded)

87%

Atlético Acreano (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juazeirense at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.44 · 9 matches

Atlético Acreano away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juazeirense attack 1.33 + Atlético Acreano defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.73

Atlético Acreano attack 0.53 + Juazeirense defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Juazeirense scores more

68%

level

22%

Atlético Acreano scores more

10%

Juazeirense at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Juazeirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

14'

20'

25'

46'

Eron← Salatiel

46'

Igor Leandro← Tauã

46'

Rafael Tanque← Alfredo

55'

Ancelmo← Kássio

61'

Enercino← Rodolfo Potiguar

78'

Cascata← Toni Galego

Juazeirense

Atlético

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Salatiel

⚽2

▼

Galego

Manager: Evandro Guimarães

46'▲Eron←▼Salatiel

61'▲Enercino←▼Rodolfo Potiguar

78'▲Cascata←▼Toni Galego

Juazeirense substitutes

EronEnercinoCascataAndradeAltemarNeriMirandaLeviPatrikSapoEduardo

Manager: Alvaro

46'▲Igor Leandro←▼Tauã

46'▲Rafael Tanque←▼Alfredo

55'▲Ancelmo←▼Kássio

Atlético Acreano substitutes

LeandroTanqueAncelmoEdivandroMoraesHenriqueFerroReginaldoTragodaraWilsonCaboco