Atlético Acreano 5–0 Juazeirense: Result & Stats

Atlético Acreano

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Juazeirense

Neto 90', 88', 9'

Rafael Barros 65'

Kássio 1'

5/13/2018

Serie C · Round 5Estádio Antônio Aquino Lopes (Rio Branco, Acre)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Atlético Acreano58%

×Draw25%

Juazeirense18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético AcreanoExpected goals in this matchJuazeirense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.78

Atlético Acreano

1.63

Juazeirense

0.78

Atlético Acreano creates 109% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 9 away

1.47

creates per match

0.44

1.11

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Atlético Acreano

1.47

Juazeirense

0.44

allows per match

Atlético Acreano

1.11

Juazeirense

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Acreano+0.00on par

Juazeirense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Acreano ↓

Juazeirense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Atlético Acreano or draw

82%

Atlético Acreano or Juazeirense

75%

Draw or Juazeirense

42%

Winning margin

Atlético Acreano wins by 2+

31%

Juazeirense wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Atlético Acreano 1+ goals

80%

Atlético Acreano 2+ goals

48%

Atlético Acreano 3+ goals

22%

Juazeirense 1+ goals

54%

Juazeirense 2+ goals

18%

Juazeirense 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Atlético Acreano (draw refunded)

76%

Juazeirense (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Acreano at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Juazeirense away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Acreano attack 1.47 + Juazeirense defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.63

Juazeirense attack 0.44 + Atlético Acreano defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Atlético Acreano scores more

58%

level

25%

Juazeirense scores more

18%

Atlético Acreano at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Atlético Acreano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

Kássio

9'

Neto

46'

Januário← Alfredo

46'

Enercino← Rayllan

46'

Victor Sapo← Jussimar

49'

Rodolfo← Tigre

65'

Rafael Barros

67'

Marcos Willard← Geovani

79'

Araújo Jordão← Eduardo

88'

Neto

90'

Neto

Atlético

Juazeirense

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽3

Manager: Alvaro

46'▲Januário←▼Alfredo

67'▲Marcos Willard←▼Geovani

79'▲Araújo Jordão←▼Eduardo

Atlético Acreano substitutes

JanuárioWillardJordãoAncelmoEdivandroLeandroFerroTanqueReginaldoTauãTragodaraWilson

Manager: Ailton Silva

46'▲Enercino←▼Rayllan

46'▲Victor Sapo←▼Jussimar

49'▲Rodolfo←▼Tigre

Juazeirense substitutes

EnercinoSapoRodolfoAltemarAlysonNeriCaponeGaúchoYanNén